| Modern Progression Systems
Modern progressive systems not attached to blackjack
sellers amount to moderations
of the traditional systems. They are moderated by mixing positive
progressions with
negative progressions and/or moderated by early stops on the
progressions.
John Patrick's betting system provides an example of
both moderations:
2, 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5 stop or some variation like 2, 1,
2, 3, 3 stop.
The stop moderates the duration. The progression
could be extended to 4, 2, 4, 6 and
could win a lot more money but the liklihood of winning at each step is
slightly less than half. Five wins in a row happen about once out of
thirty-two starts and nine units are won. With a bet being made each
minute the gambler will have two really good results an hour. But out of
almost every other play he will not have a bad result. After a win, he
will end up with a one unit win. Three wins in a row give a two unit win
and this, also happens fairly often, one time out of eight. Four wins in
a row wins six and this will happen one time out of sixteen. The
mathematically necessary losses of two units slightly more than half the
time might be overlooked when it seems like you are winning well a fair
amount of the time.
The negative progressions after the first play
insures a win for that progression; the negative progression aspects of
not doubling after the third win but, instead, pulling a unit
insures now and again the progression will recover as much as a lost
first bet.
The Dahl progression in Progression Blackjack has
gotten popular recently. This progression, 1, 1, 1.5, 1.5, 2, 2, 3, 3,
5, 5, 7, 7, 10 stop, is about like Patrick's. It has many small losses,
many small wins, and now and again can win well. The two bets at each
level and the fact bets do not double with wins allows some chip pulling
with modest, locked in, wins but still leaves a home run capability.
These are just two of an infinite number of
progressions but they more or less define the nature of modern
recommended progressions: conservative ones which pull some money as
they progress.
Blackjack and Gambling systems sellers normally sell
similar conservative progressions as a part of their packages but these
progressions need to be discussed in the context of progressive betting
in blackjack.
Progressive Betting in Blackjack.
Successful progressive betting schemes require
roughly similar amounts of wins and losses, making blackjack
particularly unsuited for progressions. About 10% of blackjack hands are
pushed, the player wins about 42% and the dealer wins about 48%. The
nearly 6% differential is made up by players' ability to split and
double (along with the three to two blackjack payoff). A player wins
less hands but wins about the same amount of money because he wins more
money on about 10% of the hands that are doubles and splits.
Some would say playing progressions should have no
effect. The player splits and doubles when supposed to and things equal
out. But things don't. The progression is not protected when larger bets
have to be made to keep up the win rate. Two examples: (1) Oscars
Grind. Player down 25 units and betting 13 units. The player has the
potential in two plays of finishing the progression. 8,8 v. 10. A split
with a likely loss of 26 units ruins the progression. (2) Dahl's
Progression. Won six hands in a row. The bet is three units. The player
has a ten against the dealer's nine. Six wins in a row happen about once
every hour and provide a fair percentage of an hour's wins. At this
point in the progression, the player has won nine units, pulled seven
units (one of which is his starting bet) and is betting three units of
his winnings A loss of an undoubled bet will terminate the progression
with a profit of six units. The loss of a double will make the winnings
for the progression three units. And the play is close. Should the
player make the mathematically sound bet of doubling or should he just
hit?
In a progression, protecting the progression is what
is important. A progressive better would most likely hit and lose some
of the advantage a normal player has.
Since progressions depend on some uniformity of bet
and some uniformity of wins and loses blackjack just does not fit
progressive betting.
And this brings us to the progressions of blackjack
system sellers.
Blackjack Systems and Progressions.
Blackjack systems sellers (like most gambling systems
sellers) primarily sell
progressions. There is normally a veneer of rationale justifying the
progression because no progression in a negative expectation game can
ever be justified mathematically.
And persons selling blackjack systems have special
problems justifying their systems
because there is a mathematically verifiable method of beating blackjack
already
known and practically free coupled with the inherent strain the varied
bets of blackjack
place on progressions. First, counting must be declared impotent and
second,
progressive betting must be reconciled with blackjack.
A neat tale is told to take care of these real
problems blackjack system sellers have.
Proponents of card clumping say that card counting can only be justified
if the
uncounted cards remaining in the shoe or deck demonstrate randomness.
They say that if, instead, high cards are clumped with other high cards
and low cards are clumped with other low cards, even if the counter
knows the proportion of the cards left, it will not do the counter any
good. Casinos, to thwart card counters and to make the game tougher to
beat for basic strategy players, purposely "wash" (the initial
mixing up when new cards are introduced) and shuffle to make and
preserve clumps. Further, the nature of blackjack hands being put into
the discard tray means clumping happens.Two high cards dealt to a player
will remain together in a discard tray or if a lot of cards are drawn to
a pat hand a small card clump will result.
According to this theory, the shuffle means clumps
will remain shoe after shoe and can
be exploited. Clumping characteristics which reoccur can be figured out.
And if the
game characteristics can be so figured out, progressions can be devised
to exploit these characteristics. Also, according to this theory,
different strategy plays can be made. If, in a low clump, the player
should hit 16 against 16. If in a high, he should stand on stiffs
against dealer high cards. He can also predict the dealer's down card
and hit, stand, double, or split based on the knowledge of the come card
and the dealer's down card.
And the plot thickens. What strategy plays are
changed by the system sellers'?
Invariably ones which lower a player's overall advantage by minimizing
doubles and
splits.
This congruence strongly suggests nothing is being
sold except progressions. It also
reveals why the system sellers say what they say about clumping and
counting.
Gambling using progression, gambling against probabilities, gambling
giving up some of the advantage inherent in a game, has to be justified
some way.
But this is not a beat up on blackjack system sellers
article except to the extent it helps
blackjack players understand progressive betting in relation to
blackjack.
A further step can be taken by an analysis of
negative and positive progressions with a special focus on the
limitations of the best known and most often rediscovered system,
the Martingale.
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